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2 Aralık 2013 Pazartesi

MONTHLY REPORT


OPINION OF THE EDITOR

This month we witnessed many developments about Syria and related with Syria. First of all we witnessed major Islamic resistance groups fighting the regime merging under the name of Islamic Front. This was a wise decision which should be made. But with the great advantages it will bring also new disadvantages which were not present before. Mainly the vast need of continuous logistic support for such a force.
On other side we see Iran-USA lowering tensions and starting a new dialogue between signing a nuclear deal giving Iran a deep breath as a first result. Also we hear ongoing secret negotiations between Hezbossatan and USA with the mediation of UK. While all these happening we see a rift in policies between KSA / Israel and USA which is positioning Israel and KSA together surprisingly. In my opinion USA is acting with Iran, Russia and indirectly Syrian regime to end the conflict in a way which both sides will enjoy but not the Syrians. In this game we see Turkey taking a new position which will adopt it to new position of the USA conflicting its stance from the start of the Syrian uprising.
I cannot predict the course of the conflict but I see in future the parts of the conflict will seem to be mainly KSA and muslim individuals supported Islamic Resistance and the remaining powers including USA,Russia and Iran together. A possible loss of logistical support of Turkey will affect resistance badly which I wish not to happen. This also will damage the reputation of Turkey's so called policy based which is based on principles.

I also would like to mention about the Islamic Groups. After the announcement of Zawahiri I see a possible future conflict between JAN and ISIS. And disobedience of ISIS will affect the position of Zawahiri. In my opinion one of the biggest threat for resistance after regime is the infighting between them. Mostly between ISIS and the other groups. I see other groups try to avoid any conflict with ISIS to a date as late as possible. But I wish they can end it peacefully even I do not have much hope.

I think by time the support of Hezbossatan will not continue as it was before. And as it begins to decrease the regime and other forces will try to end the conflict in a way they like as I mentioned. And I think this phase has began.


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IMPORTANT NEWS OF THIS MONTH


  • This month regime showed surprising advance in Damascus and Aleppo fronts. Previously there was an expected attack with the Hezbossatan militias deployed in villages Nubl and Zahra. Either this was a tactic to change the ateention from east to western side or the regime really had an intention to move towards the city or try to help Mingh airport which was under siege that time.Regime advanced to Khanaser and Safira and took Khanaser and surrounding important villages on the way to Aleppo showing an advance to Nairab airport. There is still clashes going close to the airport but still I do not have precise info about the situation between Safira and Aleppo.

  • Commander of Liwa al Tawheed Abdulkader Saleh is martyred after a regime bombing in Aleppo.

  • One of the most important news of this month is the announcement of merging Islamic Groups under the name of Islamic Front consisting of 7 major groups.




  • Commander Mohammad Jamalizadeh of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the southeastern province of Kerman was killed in the last few days by (so called) Wahhabi terrorists", the agency said, giving no more details.



  • In early days of this month regime advanced in east Ghouta in Damascus taking over Sbenah in 7 Nov. after taking Al-Dhiyabiyah & Al-Hussainiya. Then Hjeira fell to regime hands. 

  • Opposition forces captured Sadad and Mahin respectively. After Mahin they captured regime's ammunition depots. They took hundreds of tons of ammunition and some weapons from these facilities and this was a major success for opposition and showing how desperate the regime is being unable to protect these depots which are located about 90 kms. to center of Damascus city.

  • Another important event in end of first week was announcement of Zawahiri about JAN and ISIS. He asked ISIS to join its forces to JAN in Syria and continue to operate in Iraq under its name. Most possibly this announcement is replied by disobedience of ISIS. The tension between to gruops is likely to increase in future despite the common activities in some areas.

  • NDF Aleppo Chief Commander Brigadier General Hassan Mohammed Khashir is killed by mujahideen.

  • There was an important bombing of opposition forces in Damascus on regime forces. They blasted and brought down fully a building where high ranking regime officials were holding a meeting. This attack killed at least 31 regime forces including at least two regime generals and high ranking officials. According to opposition forces loss of regime is about 60 people.

  • After advance of regime forces in East Ghouta in first days of month opposition forces started a surprise attack few weeks later resulting in capturing of Jarba, Al Abada, Al Qasmiya, Al Badariya, Al Qassa ve Deir Salman villages in East Ghouta. This was a major success for mujahideen and a shock for regime. Regime and Hezbossatan and other shiite groups suffered heavy losses in these clashes and lately it came to surface that both sides blaming each other for this. Especially these clashes and the losses of Hezbossatan in Qalamoun front and other fronts is putting it into trouble in Lebanon in long term. As I predicted before Hezbossatan cannot stand against continuous fight and losses in Syria. In case of oppositions ability to continue to fight against the regime will force them to change their tactics and try to negotiate. I do not have precise information about Oteibah but there is heavy clashes ongoing. And I do not know the opposition was able to break the siege or made some more supply channels available after this advancement.

  • Another important event is the nuclear deal mainly between USA and Iran. I will mention this later in general opinion part.





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