SOURCE:
http://www.syriadeeply.org/articles/2014/05/5440/deir-ezzor-rebels-battle-oil/
As ISIS
pushes further into the oil-rich province, we look at the factors that
make it so valuable to the extremist groups battling to control it.
Two months
ago, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) began its push into
Deir Ezzor, the eastern province bordering the extremist faction's base
in Iraq. Waiting in the well-populated corridors formed by the Khabur
and Euphrates rivers were Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaida-affiliated group
well-entrenched with local tribes, and its sometimes allies, the
Islamic Front.
At stake for ISIS in Deir
Ezzor, one of the top oil-producing provinces in the country, is not
just millions of dollars in smuggled oil receipts, but a strategic
foothold into eastern Syria and beyond. But Nusra is strong in the
region, pushing back in fierce fighting that has caused tens of
thousands of civilians to flee.
Valerie
Szybala is an analyst with the Institute of the Study of War who focuses
on the dynamics of Deir Ezzor. Here, she weighs in on what makes the
province such a valuable prospect.
Syria Deeply: What's happening today in Deir Ezzor?
Valerie Szybala:
ISIS started this offensive much earlier than people realize. They
began at the end of March, slowly pushing down from Hassakeh and
ar-Raqqa into Deir Ezzor, via the Khabur River and Euphrates River. The
two rivers come together at al-Basirah, just south of Deir Ezzor city,
making al-Basirah a linchpin and a strategic point in the province.
ISIS had been both pushed out and strategically withdrawn from Deir
Ezzor in January and February when rebels rose up against it, and now it
has returned with a fury. It was surprising how successful they have
been. The most powerful group there has been Jabhat al-Nusra, which
works in the province with Jaish al-Islam and other Islamic Front
groups. This JN-rebel coalition had been in primary control of many
areas. It's possible Nusra wasn't expecting ISIS's resurgence, and were
focused on other battles and were therefore unprepared in Deir Ezzor
when ISIS decided to concentrate on it again.
Syria Deeply: Where does the government fit in here?
Szybala: It's clear that the regime
has benefited from ISIS coming back in Deir Ezzor. The regime
strongholds in the province are minimal, and they really only have
forces remaining in a few neighborhoods in the northern part of Deir
Ezzor city and the military airbase.
All of these
sites had been close to crumbling under continued rebel attacks prior
to the ISIS resurgence. Also, regime airstrikes on JN and Islamic Front
forces have been closely correlated with the ISIS advances, paving the
way for ISIS to make new gains. One component of this offensive has been
both JN and ISIS vying for support of local tribes. Deir Ezzor is a
tribal region and many are from the same tribal groups that exist just
over the Iraq border. Other than that it's a largely unpopulated desert.
Syria Deeply: Which group will win?
Szybala: I don't think either ISIS
or Nusra is a natural fit to gain the tribes' support from an
ideological perspective. The allegiance of tribal groups have been
bought for the most part, and most allegiances have fallen on Nusra's
side. Some of it is because ISIS is very brutal and Nusra is much
friendlier to civilians, so they're more welcome. It's also beccause
Nusra has, through the Sharia councils that it has established, been in
charge of many of the oil reserves in Deir Ezzor. They've been able to
set up deals and profit sharing agreements with local tribes, coopting
their support.
Syria Deeply: Why does each side want this province so much?
Szybala:
Deir Ezzor has two strategically appealing aspects for both JN and
ISIS. One is oil. The province’s oil production has fallen dramatically
from prewar levels, especially since the regime pulled out of most
oil-producing areas in late 2012 and early 2013. Oil produced out of
wells has been improved since the rebels took over its production. For a
time after that it was a free-for-all, with oil being refined in small
handmade facilities, which were incredibly damaging to the environment
and dangerous to the people who ran them. Over time, more organized
efforts such as those of the Sharia Council run by Jabhat al-Nusra have
boosted production by utilizing the former oil and gas infrastructure in
the province.
Some of the oil currently produced
is sold in Syria, smuggled to various oil markets that can be found as
far as Aleppo (which implies that it's gone through ISIS-controlled
territory in Raqqa). But most oil produced by rebel groups [is produced
by Nusra] and is smuggled to southeastern Turkey, where a new black
market economy has developed around it. The financial support coming out
of this production makes these groups largely self-sufficient.
Vice magazine has estimated it as $500,000 to $1
million a month total illegal sales, while the Carnegie Endowment has
produced an estimate of up to $50 million a month. The real number is
somewhere in between. But in any case it is a pretty substantial amount
of money being smuggled out of Syria, especially when you consider that
much of it is going to al-Qaida-affiliated groups.
The
second strategic factor in Deir Ezzor is that it is an important supply
route and transit zone. For ISIS, which has its main military center of
gravity in Iraq, the province connects its [stronghold in] Iraq to its
stronghold in ar-Raqqa, so it is important for them to have freedom of
movement in Deir Ezzor.
Also, the regime has
pretty much lost control in Deir Ezzor. There are a couple of remaining
enclaves that house regime forces, but it's been essentially ungoverned
at a national level for a long time. Extremist groups looking to assert
control are going to gravitate there.